HPSI Returns to Gradual Upward Trend with November Jump

Matthew Classick

202-752-3662

WASHINGTON, DC – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 2.6 points in November to 87.8, once again nearing its all-time high from September. The increase can be attributed to increases in four of the six HPSI components. The net share of respondents who said now is a good time to buy a home increased 7 percentage points compared to October but remains down 1 percentage point compared to the same period last year. Additionally, the net share who reported that now is a good time to sell a home rose 4 percentage points in November and is now up 21 percentage points year-over-year. The net share who said home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased 6 percentage points in November, while Americans also expressed a greater sense of job security, with the net share who say they are not concerned about losing their job increasing 4 percentage points. Finally, the net share of consumers who reported that their income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained unchanged in November.

“In November, the HPSI rebounded to near its all-time high, returning the index to its gradual upward trend and suggesting fairly stable consumer home-buying attitudes,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “These results are consistent with our expectation that the housing market will continue its modest expansion going forward. Next month’s survey should offer the public a first look at the influence that potential tax reform may have on consumers’ views toward housing and the broader economy.”

HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX – COMPONENT HIGHLIGHTS

Fannie Mae’s 2017 Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased in November by 2.6 points to 87.8. The HPSI is up 6.6 points compared with the same time last year.

• The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 7 percentage points to 29%, erasing last month’s 6 percentage point drop.
• The net percentage of those who say it is a good time to sell a home increased by 4 percentage points to 34%.
• The net share of Americans who say that home prices will go up rose 6 percentage points to 46% in November.
• The net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months fell 5 percentage point to -51%.
• The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job rose by 4 percentage points to 74%.
• The net share of Americans who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained unchanged at 14%.

ABOUT FANNIE MAE’S HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX

The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) distills information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.

ABOUT FANNIE MAE’S NATIONAL HOUSING SURVEY

The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS) polled approximately 1,000 Americans via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). As cell phones have become common and many households no longer have landline phones, the NHS contacts 60 percent of respondents via their cell phones (as of October 2014). For more information, please see the Technical Notes. Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support in the future. The November 2017 National Housing Survey was conducted between November 1, 2017 and November 20, 2017. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. Interviews were conducted by PSB, in coordination with Fannie Mae.

DETAILED HPSI & NHS FINDINGS

For detailed findings from the November 2017 Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.

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