Housing Confidence Inches Higher Amid Record-High Optimism Toward Mortgage Rates

WASHINGTON, DC – The Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 1.8 points in September to 73.9, its highest level in more than two years, as consumers reported survey-high optimism that mortgage rates will decline over the next 12 months. In September, a record 42% of consumers said they expect mortgage rates to decline, up from 39% the month prior and 24% in June. This compares to 31% who expect mortgage rates to stay the same and 27% who expect rates to increase. However, a plurality of consumers also indicated that they expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, which would offset some of the expected rate-driven improvement to affordability. Respondents’ perception of homebuying conditions ticked up slightly this month but remains not far from its all-time low, with only 19% indicating it’s a good time to buy a home. On the flip side, 65 percent of consumers think it’s a good time to sell a home. The full index is up 9.4 points year over year.

“Although most consumers continue to think it’s a ‘bad time’ to buy a home, the recent shift in attitude toward mortgage rates is pushing overall housing sentiment higher, and a growing share are now pointing to high home prices rather than high mortgage rates as the primary sticking point for affordability,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Increased positivity that mortgage rates will continue to fall has driven the HPSI to a 30-month high, but we’ve yet to see consumers’ newfound rate optimism translate into a meaningful increase in home sales activity. Instead, as we noted in our latest housing forecast, existing home sales are on pace to record their lowest annual total since 1995. This signals to us that consumers are paying attention to the easing interest rate environment but still feel stymied by the considerable run-up in home prices over the last four years.”

Palim continued: “Notably, housing sentiment among renters, a common source of first-time homebuyers, has improved at approximately the same pace as homeowners. Over the last three months, the share of renters believing it’s a good time to buy a home has risen from 13% to 20%, while the share expecting mortgage rates to fall has risen from 16% to 30%. While these numbers are still relatively low, we think the improvement may signal that some potential homebuyers who have been waiting for mortgage rates to come down may be closer to coming off the sidelines, despite their ongoing concerns about home prices.”

Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased 1.8 points in September to 73.9. The HPSI is up 9.4 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.

• Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 2 percentage points this month (19%) while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy decreased from 83% to 81%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 3 percentage points month over month to -62%.
• Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home (65%) remained unchanged from last month, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell (35%) increased 1 percentage point. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell fell 1 percentage point month over month to 30%.
• Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased from 37% to 39% and the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 25% to 23%. The share who think home prices will stay the same remained at 37%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased 3 percentage points month over month to 16%.
• Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from 39% to 42%, a new survey high. The percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 26% to 27%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 35% to 31%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 2 percentage points month over month to 15%, a second consecutive survey high and the highest in NHS history.
• Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 78% to 77%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased 1 percentage point (22%). As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 1 percentage point month over month to 56%.
• Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from 17% to 18%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower decreased from 14% to 11%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 68% to 70%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 5 percentage points month over month to 8%.

About Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.

About Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls the adult general population of the United States to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, purchase and rental prices, household finances, and overall confidence in the economy. Each respondent is asked more than 100 questions, making the NHS one of the most detailed attitudinal longitudinal surveys of its kind, to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). For more information, please see the Technical Notes.

Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The September 2024 National Housing Survey was conducted between September 1, 2024 and September 19, 2024. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was conducted exclusively through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of Chicago’s probability-based panel, in coordination with Fannie Mae and PSB Insights. Calculations are made using unrounded and weighted respondent level data to help ensure precision in NHS results from wave to wave. As a result, minor differences in calculated data (summarized results, net calculations, etc.) of up to 1 percentage point may occur due to rounding.

Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.

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About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.