HPSI Starts the New Year on a Hopeful Note

WASHINGTON, DC – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased in January, rising 1.2 points to 84.7 and paring some of its recent losses. The increase can be attributed primarily to an 8-percentage point jump in the net share of Americans who reported substantially higher household income today compared to this time last year.

“Movement among the HPSI components points to possible housing affordability relief at the start of 2019,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “The net share of consumers expecting home prices to increase over the next year has declined further, falling to the lowest level since late 2012. Meanwhile, consumer perceptions of household income growth have improved, with the net share noting rising income over the past year hitting a survey high. Furthermore, fewer consumers since last summer, on net, believe that mortgage rates will rise over the next year – a sentiment consistent with the Fed’s statement at its January meeting that it will be patient with future target rate adjustments. Overall, these results are in line with our forecast that, amid improving affordability conditions, home sales should stabilize in 2019 after declining last year for the first time in four years.”

On this webpage you will find a news release with highlights from the HPSI and NHS results, the latest Data Release highlighting the consumer attitudinal indicators, month-over-month key indicator data, an overview and white paper about the HPSI, technical notes providing in-depth information about the NHS methodology, the questionnaire used for the survey, and a comparative assessment of Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey and other consumer surveys.

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