July 17, 20182018 Growth Outlook Upgraded on Q2 Growth Spike
WASHINGTON, DC – Economic growth is estimated to have picked up strongly in the second quarter despite rising trade tensions, ultimately resulting in full-year real GDP growth of 2.8 percent, a slight upgrade from last month’s forecast, according to the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group's July 2018 Economic and Housing Outlook. The ESR Group believes the second quarter's estimated 4.2 percent annualized growth pace is unsustainable for the balance of the year, as the contribution from trade was likely temporary. As impacts of fiscal policy begin to fade in the second half of 2019, the Group expects full-year 2019 growth to moderate to 2.2 percent.
"As we celebrate the ninth anniversary of the economic expansion with what's likely to be a robust second quarter, we're also examining whether last quarter's headline growth will mark a high point for the remainder of the cycle," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "Along with ongoing tightening of monetary policy, we expect fiscal stimulus, which has supported consumer, business, and government spending, to weaken as we move into 2019. And while trade provided a meaningful lift last quarter – owing in part to overseas firms pulling forward their imports from the U.S. ahead of the announced tariffs – we expect trade will likely once again be a drag on growth moving forward. On housing, the same inventory constraints continue to haunt affordability and sales, with demand outstripping supply and home prices continuing to rise at a fast clip as a result."
The ESR Group expects consumer and government spending growth, inventory investment, and a leaner goods deficit to have contributed to the second quarter improvement in GDP. However, while fiscal stimulus should continue to support such spending through the second half of 2018, a strengthening dollar and the potential for a wider range of tariffs could make trade a significant detractor from growth. Additionally, the worsening rhetoric and uncertainty over trade policy has the potential to adversely impact business sentiment and investment spending and hiring. Elsewhere, the labor market continued to improve in June, helping to boost consumer spending growth, which is expected to have tripled in the second quarter compared to the prior quarter. However, with a firming inflation outlook and the Fed signaling that it is willing to tolerate an inverted yield curve, the ESR Group now expects two additional interest rate hikes this year – in September and December – compared to its previous forecast of just one additional rate hike.
Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at www.fanniemae.com to read the full July 2018 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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